@Article{VieiraTBMRRCS:2021:CuTrFu,
               author = "Vieira, Rita M{\'a}rcia da Silva Pinto and Tomasella, Javier and 
                         Barbosa, Alexandre Augusto and Martins, Minella A. and Rodriguez, 
                         Daniel A. and Rezende, Fernanda S. D. and Carriello, Felix and 
                         Santana, Marcos D. O.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro 
                         Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres 
                         Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 
                         (UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)} and {Minist{\'e}rio do 
                         Meio Ambiente (MMA)}",
                title = "Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current 
                         trends and future scenarios",
              journal = "Land Degradation and Development",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "32",
               number = "1",
                pages = "224--240",
                month = "Jan.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura 
                         sustent{\'a}vel} and {Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: 
                         Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "climate change, climatic projections, desertification 
                         susceptibility, LULC modelling, MEDALUS.",
             abstract = "Desertification is one of the major environmental problems that 
                         humanity faces today, since it reduces the availability of 
                         ecosystem services, increases food insecurity and poverty, and 
                         affects the wellbeing of societies. The analysis of the process is 
                         extremely complex, since the phenomenon takes place at different 
                         temporal and spatial scales, influenced by different factors. It 
                         is widely recognized that land use/land cover change (LULC) is one 
                         of the main drivers of desertification since environmental 
                         degradation is always triggers by the removal of natural 
                         vegetation cover. In this study, a LULC change model was 
                         calibrated and validated using climate model simulations, 
                         demographic data and land susceptibility maps for the historical 
                         period 20002010. Then, desertification susceptibility of the 
                         Northeast of Brazil were estimated by integrating LULC 
                         trajectories with three different downscaled climate change 
                         scenarios and projection of population growth for the period 
                         20152025, 20252035, and 20352045 for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 
                         and RCP8.5. Results indicated that, between 2010 and 20352045, 
                         areas of moderate susceptibility decreased 10.34%, while areas of 
                         high susceptibility increased 12.28% in the case of the RCP4.5. 
                         For the RCP8.5 scenario, those numbers are \−16.85% for 
                         moderate susceptibility, and +19.62% for high susceptibility. 
                         Among all indicators included in the analysis, land management was 
                         the main driver of desertification susceptibility, which indicates 
                         that mitigation and adaptation strategies for the region should 
                         pursue sustainable land use policies.",
                  doi = "10.1002/ldr.3681",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3681",
                 issn = "1085-3278 and 1099-145X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "vieira_desertification.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}